2016 Growth Strategy – Canada
September, 2016
Table of Contents
- A. Economic Context and Objective
- B. Macroeconomic Policy Actions to Support Growth
- C. Structural Reform Priorities
- D. Investment
- Annex 1.Past commitment – Brisbane and Antalya commitments
- Annex 2. New and Adjusted Policy Commitments since Antalya
- Annex 3. Past commitment – St. Petersburg fiscal commitment
- Annex 4. Pre-Brisbane commitments
- Annex 5. Key Economic Indicators
A. Economic Context and Objective
Economic Objective
Canada’s overarching economic objective remains to ensure prosperity and rising living standards for all Canadians. However, through the 2016 budget, the new Government of Canada is taking a fundamentally different approach to achieve this objective. This approach focuses on growth and includes putting forward measures that will grow the economy for the benefit of every Canadian. It includes smart investment and fair choices. In particular, strengthening the middle class, making targeted investments in infrastructure and innovation, and investing in Canadians in ways that promote inclusive growth are key for the Government of Canada.
Short-term Challenges
Slowing global growth and significantly lower commodity prices have led to a slowing of real GDP growth in Canada from 2.5 per cent in 2014 to 1.1 per cent in 2015. Non-residential business investment contracted sharply in 2015, largely driven by declines in the oil and gas sector, while household consumption growth remained moderate. In 2016, Canada continues to undergo complex adjustments to the declines in global commodity prices and in its terms of trade. Slower-than-expected U.S. growth and then wildfires in Alberta have weighed heavily on Canada’s growth in the first half of 2016. Growth is expected to firm up in the second half of 2016, as oil production resumes and rebuilding begins in Fort McMurray, and supported by the ongoing expansion in the U.S., the lower Canadian dollar, accommodative monetary and financial conditions, and fiscal measures introduced by the Government in Budget 2016. Overall real GDP growth in 2016 is expected to be just below 1.5 per cent in 2016 (1.4 per cent from Private Sector Survey in February 2016 and 1.3 per cent from July Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report).
Long-term Challenges
However, Canada cannot rely indefinitely on accommodative monetary and fiscal policy to build potential output growth. While Canada’s economic growth was largely dependent on higher labour force participation and strong commodity prices in the decade leading up to the 2008-09 recession, population aging and the recent impact of low oil prices on the economy demonstrate that Canada cannot rely on these historical drivers of growth to power the economy in the longer term. Higher productivity growth driven by more innovation, as well as a more educated, skilled, innovative and capital-intensive labour force, and increased labour market participation by under-represented groups will be essential to raising Canadians’ living standards.
B. Macroeconomic Policy Actions to Support Growth
Monetary Policy
The Bank of Canada’s target for the overnight rate has remained unchanged at 0.5 per cent since July 2015, a historically low level. As such, monetary conditions are very accommodative. While conventional monetary policy rates are low, there is room for the Bank of Canada to use unconventional monetary policies if warranted.
Fiscal Policy
In an environment of sustained economic weakness, the Government of Canada’s 2016 budget makes strategic investments totalling around 2.5 per cent of GDP ($50.2 billion) over the next six years in order to provide immediate support for the economy as well as raise the potential output over the long-term. Investments in infrastructure and in innovation will form the foundation for a more inclusive society—one that delivers stronger growth and a better quality of life for the middle class and those working hard to join it.
This reflects the Government of Canada’s commitment to make use of its available fiscal room to support growth. Canada has a low debt burden, with public debt charges as a percentage of budgetary revenues at near-historic lows.
C. Structural Reform Priorities
C1. Implementation of Past Growth Strategy Commitments
In 2016, Canada continued to make important progress towards full and timely implementation of its commitments from the 2014 Brisbane Growth Strategy and the 2015 Antalya Adjusted Growth Strategy. More than half of Canada’s Brisbane and Antalya key commitments have been fully implemented, and implementation of the remaining commitments are in progress.
Canada has experienced delays in implementing some measures due to the need to follow lengthy but necessary procedural and legislative steps. For example, before bringing the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) into force, ratification must be sought in Canada and the EU, and any necessary changes to the regulations and legislations of both parties must be made in order to align themselves with the obligations of the agreement. Moreover, for some measures, ongoing consultations with other levels of governments and stakeholders are being carried out as they are critical for effective and impactful implementation.
In addition, in 2016, the Government of Canada has adopted a fundamentally different approach that focuses on growth and not austerity. The approach uses more growth-friendly fiscal policy to support the economy, particularly by making investments that will strengthen economic growth. The Balanced Budget Legislation enacted last year is inconsistent with this approach and has been repealed. Furthermore, given the 2016 budget focus on providing support to and strengthening the middle class, further reductions to the federal small business income tax rate are being deferred.
C2. New Structural Reform Measures
In addition to the measures included in the Brisbane and Antalya growth strategies, the Government of Canada continues to put forward a series of growth-enhancing measures that aim to not only help position Canada for long term growth but also support growth in the near term.
Promoting Inclusive Growth
For growth to be sustainable, it must be inclusive. Over the past thirty years, income growth of the wealthiest Canadians has outpaced that of other Canadians. Canada needs to ensure that economic growth benefits all Canadians if it is to build a fairer and more inclusive society.
Recognizing the important role the middle class plays in Canada’s economic success, the Government is taking actions to strengthen the middle class. An important initiative includes the reduction of the second federal personal income tax rate to 20.5 per cent from 22 per cent, and the introduction of a new top federal income tax rate of 33 per cent for individuals with more than $200,000 in taxable income each year.
The Government also replaced the previous complicated child benefit system with a new Canada Child Benefit. This new benefit is simpler, better-targeted, more generous and tax-free, and provides greater support to low- and middle-income families. In addition, while Canada’s retirement income system has been successful in reducing the incidence of poverty among Canadian seniors, some seniors continue to be at a heightened risk of living on low incomes. The Government therefore increased the Guaranteed Income Supplement, by up to $947 annually, to help the most vulnerable Canadian seniors.
The Government’s substantial investments in Indigenous communities’ primary and secondary education (listed in “Advancing Labour Market Reform, Educational Attainment and Skills”) and social infrastructure (listed in Section D) will also contribute to promoting inclusive growth.
Advancing Labour Market Reform, Educational Attainment and Skills
Building a workforce that is not only highly educated but also responsive to changing skills requirements is critical. However, for many Canadians, rising costs have made post-secondary education less affordable while some segments of the population face barriers to acquiring the skills and experience they need to participate fully in the labour market.
To ensure that Canada’s future workforce receives the necessary education and training to be well prepared to take advantage of new job opportunities, the Government will undertake a series of reforms to the Canada Student Loans Program to make post-secondary education more affordable and student debt loads more manageable. Moreover, recognizing that First Nations children may not be reaching their full potential in terms of education, which is preventing their full integration into the labour market, the Government will also invest in the primary and secondary education of First Nations children. These measures also contribute to promoting more inclusive growth.
The support for education will further be complemented by initiatives to help young people gain the skills, abilities and work experience they need to find and maintain good employment. The Government will make additional investments in the Youth Employment Strategy to help young Canadians develop skills and gain valuable work experience to support a more successful transition to the workforce.
In addition to equipping young Canadians with the necessary education and training, it is also important to help individuals stay connected to the labour market when they become unemployed. Therefore, the Government is making changes to the Employment Insurance (EI) system. Eliminating the higher EI eligibility requirements for new and re-entrants – primarily young Canadians and recent immigrants – will provide support while they seek re-employment, and extending the Working While on Claim pilot project will ensure that claimants always benefit from accepting work.
Encouraging Innovation
Increased investment in R&D and innovation is critical to increasing external competitiveness and productivity.
The Government is developing a new Innovation Agenda to build an innovative economy. As a first step, recognizing the fundamental role played by Canada’s universities, colleges and other research institutions in developing highly skilled and creative workers, the Government will provide funding for infrastructure projects at post-secondary institutions and affiliated research and commercialization organizations. In addition to enhancing and modernizing research and commercialization facilities on Canadian campuses and industry-relevant training facilities at college and polytechnic institutions, this initiative will support projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the environmental sustainability of these types of facilities.
Enhancing Environmental Sustainability and Trade Openness
Supporting a clean economy will help position Canada to take advantage of opportunities in the new global economy by diversifying the economy and opening up access to new markets, while reducing emissions and generating well-paying jobs for Canadians.
In this regard, the Government of Canada will provide over $1 billion over four years starting in 2017-18 to support clean technology, including in the forestry, fisheries, mining, energy and agriculture sectors, to help Canada transform into a low-carbon economy. In the context of the pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, the Government will also provide $2 billion over two years to support provincial and territorial actions that materially reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In addition, the Government remains committed to reducing trade barriers. As part of this effort, the Government of Canada has recently eliminated or waived import tariffs on a number of additional manufacturing inputs and on ferries of all sizes, and, to ensure a fair trade environment, it has taken steps to strengthen the trade remedy system.
Improving and Strengthening the Financial System
The Government continues to monitor the housing market in Canada and is committed to implementing policy measures that maintain a healthy, competitive and stable housing market. In December 2015, the Government announced coordinated actions to strengthen the resilience of Canada’s housing finance system. These included an increase in the minimum down payment for newly insured mortgages on the portion of the house price above $500,000, increases in guarantee fees for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)-sponsored securitization programs, and a plan to update regulatory capital requirements for residential mortgages. The Government has also announced funding to develop methods for gathering data on purchases of Canadian housing by foreign homebuyers to better understand the role of foreign homebuyers in Canada’s housing market. Further, in June 2016, a federal, provincial and municipal working group on the housing market was created to study the current state of the Canadian housing market and provide policy advice.
D. Investment
Improving Infrastructure
In recent years, congestion resulting from rapid growth in Canadian cities and the demand for safer and more resilient communities have made the need for infrastructure investment more acute. In addition to the immediate benefits in terms of job creation in various sectors, as well as the generation of significant economic spinoff activity, infrastructure investment will also ensure that Canadians continue to benefit from modern, efficient and sustainable infrastructure that is the foundation of our quality of life and long-term prosperity. In addition to the new infrastructure investment announced in 2016, the Government of Canada made significant commitments related to public investment in infrastructure and to enhancing existing infrastructure support in its 2014 Brisbane Growth Strategy and 2015 Antalya Adjusted Growth Strategy and 2015 Antalya Investment Strategy.
Among the measures included in Canada’s 2015 Antalya Investment Strategy, two measures on improving the investment ecosystem have been fully implemented. These include: helping manufacturers to invest in productivity-enhancing machinery and equipment through an accelerated capital cost allowance and restoring the mandatory long-form census to improve the quality and accessibility of national data. One measure, the corporate tax relief for small business, was partially implemented, as explained in section C1. The remaining investment measures are all on track (see details below in Annex 1).
Budget 2016 includes the Government’s phase 1 of the long-term plan on infrastructure. Phase 1 of the plan provides $11.9 billion over five years and includes following investments:
- $3.4 billion over three years to upgrade and improve public transit systems across Canada;
- $5.0 billion over five years for investments in water, wastewater and green infrastructure projects across Canada; and
- $3.4 billion over five years for social infrastructure, including affordable housing, early learning and child care, cultural and recreational infrastructure, and community health care facilities on reserve.
The Government is also providing funding for innovative infrastructure projects through the Post-Secondary Institutions Strategic Investment Fund (listed above in “encouraging innovation”).
Annex 1. Past commitment – Brisbane and Antalya commitments
The purpose of these tables is to monitor the implementation of members’ previous commitments.
Brisbane and Antalya Key Commitments for Monitoring Purposes
Interim Steps for Implementation | Deadline | Status |
---|---|---|
N/A | N/A | All projects are proceeding and are at various stages of implementation. |
Interim Steps for Implementation | Deadline | Status |
---|---|---|
These modules include the following features: paperless registration, job ad customization, improved security and an improved matching algorithm. | These policy actions were gradually implemented between January and April 2015 as per ESDC’s Budget 2014 commitment to modernize Job Bank and launch an enhanced JMS. | The enhanced JMS was rolled out in early 2015 and it allows job seekers and employers to be matched according to skill, experience, knowledge, location and job requirements. The JMS uses a new validation process which ensures the authenticity of job seekers and employers who register to use Job Bank. |
Interim Steps for Implementation | Deadline | Status |
---|---|---|
N/A | N/A | These measures have been implemented as announced. The legislative cap on wholesale wireless roaming rates was included in the Economic Action Plan 2014 Act, No.1, which received Royal Assent on June 20, 2014. Amendments to provide for an administrative monetary penalties regime were included in the Economic Action Plan 2014 Act, No.2, tabled on October 23, 2014, which received Royal Assent on December 17, 2014. Three spectrum auctions have taken place in 2015 (AWS-3; 2,500 MHz; and Residual). |
As a result of the recent spectrum auctions, the amount of spectrum available to provide mobile services to Canadian consumers grew by almost 60 percent between early 2014 and May 2015. This is the largest amount of spectrum ever released in such a short time in Canada.
Interim Steps for Implementation | Deadline | Status |
---|---|---|
The Government announced the Small Business Job Credit in September 2014. The credit provides relief to small businesses for Employment Insurance premiums paid in 2015 and 2016. | The Small Business Job credit is available in 2015 and 2016. | In 2015 and 2016, the Small Business Job Credit will be available to any firm paying employer Employment Insurance premiums equal to or less than $15,000 in those years. The credit will effectively reduce small businesses’ EI rate by 28 cents from the legislated rate of $1.88 to $1.60 per $100 of insurable earnings. The credit is calculated as the difference between premiums paid at the legislated rate and the reduced small business rate. |
Interim Steps for Implementation | Deadline | Status |
---|---|---|
After signing the legally reviewed Canada-EU CETA, Canada and the EU will undertake internal ratification and implementation. The Canada-Korea FTA entered into force on January 1, 2015; no further action is needed. | Canada and EU are aiming to sign the CETA in 2016 with entry into force in 2017. | Legal vetting of the CETA was concluded on February 29, 2016. Signing, ratification and implementation will follow. |
The Canada-Korea FTA is expected to increase Canadian exports to South Korea by 32 percent and to boost the Canadian economy by $1.7 billion.
Interim Steps for Implementation | Deadline | Status |
---|---|---|
N/A | N/A | This measure has been implemented as announced. Legislation to enact this measure received Royal Assent in June 2015. |
Interim Steps for Implementation | Deadline | Status |
---|---|---|
In July 2015, Federal, Provincial and Territorial Labour Market Ministers announced that apprenticeship training for the first ten Red Seal trades will be harmonized by September 2016 in most jurisdictions, and to harmonize training for two-thirds of Red Seal apprentices by September 2017. Ministers also signed a Provincial-Territorial Mobility Agreement in July 2015, which details jurisdictional commitments to allow apprentices to work temporarily or move permanently between provinces and territories and receive recognition for hours worked and other training completed. | The aim is to harmonize a total of 30 Red Seal trades in most jurisdictions (outside Quebec) by 2020. | There is strong momentum and collaboration with industry across the country. Most jurisdictions are on track for the implementation of nine of the first ten trades by September 2016. The tenth trade, Heavy Duty Equipment Technician, was harmonized as part of phase 2 due to common training with other Red Seal trades. All nine trades that are part of phase 2 are also harmonized and most jurisdictions are on track to implement them by September 2017. In addition, work is underway to harmonize the next set of five trades by September 2018, with pan-Canadian consultations launched for two trades. In January 2016, the Provincial-Territorial Mobility Agreement was implemented. |
Other Non-key Commitments
Brisbane Commitments
British Columbia, Ontario, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Yukon and Canada are jointly engaged in the creation of the Cooperative Capital Markets Regulatory System. The Cooperative System is designed to preserve local perspectives while streamlining the capital markets regulatory framework to enhance Canada’s financial services sector, support efficient capital markets and manage systemic risk. In July 2016, participating governments named the initial Board of Directors of the Capital Markets Authority Implementation Organization, which will lead in the transition to implementation of the proposed cooperative regulatory system.
The objective of the additional funding to CAIP is to help entrepreneurs realize the business potential of their ideas.
Providing $30 million of this amount to the National Research Council’s Industrial Research Assistance Program (IRAP) to support youth internships in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) undertaking technical research and development projects.
IRAP delivered incremental funding through its ongoing Youth Employment Program (YEP) . Incremental to IRAP, the additional YEP funding was available in fiscal year 2014-15 and 2015-16. Interns were paired with innovative SMEs, providing training experience and supporting private sector R&D.
Employment and Social Development Canada is still prioritizing projects that provide work experience in high-demand fields such as science, technology, engineering, mathematics and the skilled trades. The National Research Council (NRC) has delivered support for youth internships in SMEs’ R&D projects.
It was estimated that at least 26,000 apprentices per year would apply for over $100 million in loans.
As of March 31, 2016, total applications received amount to 27,638 with total Canada Apprentice Loans (CAL) approved totalling 22,402. Canada Apprentice Loans disbursed amount to $86.3 million, to 19,134 recipients.
The project sites are in the early stages of implementation and are working towards establishing initial milestones.
Express Entry selects the top economic immigrants who are most likely to succeed in Canada and contribute to the Canadian economy, the labour market and communities. Express Entry helps newcomers participate more fully in the economy and integrate more quickly into Canadian society. Express Entry will help ensure the immigration system addresses Canada’s economic and labour market needs while reducing backlogs and improving processing times.
In the first year of Express Entry, almost 10,000 Express Entry candidates landed as permanent residents in 2015. In 2016, an average of 1,800 new profiles are being created each week, and just over 62% of candidates claimed a job offer or a provincial or territorial nomination.
In addition, the Government announced in Budget 2016 that the Department of Finance will undertake a financial sector legislative review and begin consulting stakeholders including smaller banks in the coming months. The review provides an opportunity to examine the legislative and regulatory framework in light of emerging trends and developments, to ensure it remains robust and technically sound.
By enabling Canadian post-secondary institutions to strategically advance their greatest strengths on the world stage, the Fund will help them compete with the best in the world for talent and partnership opportunities, make breakthrough discoveries and seize emerging opportunities that create long-term benefits for Canadians.
Antalya Commitments
Budget 2016 laid out the Government’s plan to support skills training to help Canadians succeed in the labour market.
As a first step, the Budget proposes additional funding of $125 million for the Labour Market Development Agreements and $50 million for the Canada Job Fund Agreements in 2016-17 to boost support for skills and training.
Funding include $15 million over the next two fiscal years for ASETS ($5 million in 2016-17 and $10 million in 2017-18) to better align training with community needs in the areas of housing construction, water treatment, child care and local administration. On May 25, 2016, the Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour announced additional ASETS supports of $45 million in 2016-17. Funding also includes $50 million per year thereafter to the Skills and Partnership Fund (SPF), which provides skills development and training for Indigeous peoples, in partnership with businesses and other levels of government.
Over the summer of 2016, the Government will work closely with Indigenous organizations, provinces and territories to engage stakeholders in broad-based consultations to identify ways to improve these agreements and guide future investments.
Status: On track
- Amendments to the LMDA and CJF agreements to flow the additional funding are being negotiated with P/Ts.
- Broad-based consultations with Pan-Canadian stakeholders have been launched under the Forum of Labour Market Ministers, with a summary report of what was heard to be presented to Ministers at their next meeting in October.
ASETS
- Over the period April 2010 to June 2016, ASETS agreement holders had served approximately 273,035 clients, with over 99,765 securing jobs and approximately 48,625 returning to school.
SPF
- A total of 16 SPF projects have been extended for one year (2015-16), and subsequently extended to Fall 2016, to continue to build skills and increase the participation of Indigenous peoples in the labour force by targeting training in high-skilled, high-demand jobs across the country.
- With respect to the $50M in SPF funding for 2016-17, a call-for-proposals was launched on May 25, 2016, by Minister Mihychuk. This call closed on July 29, 2016 and implementation of successful proposals is expected to begin in Fall 2016.
- Over the period April 2012 to June 2016, SPF agreement holders had served approximately 3,055 clients, with over 10,730 securing jobs and approximately 1,370 returning to school.
- The Government of Canada recognizes that funding increases alone will not improve the labour market program outcomes of Indigenous people. Building on an already well-established relationship, Employment and Social Development Canada is consulting with Indigenous leaders and organizations, employers and other key stakeholders on potential improvements that can be made to Indigenous labour market programming to inform a renewed and expanded ASETS.
Item | Facilitators | Safeguards |
---|---|---|
Investment Ecosystem | Supporting Improvements in Investment Climate
Status: Implemented. The Government repealed the Federal Balanced Budget Act.
Status: Implemented. The accelerated capital cost allowance (CCA) for machinery and equipment assets used in manufacturing and processing acquired after 2015 and before 2026 has been legislated.
Status: In progress. Discussions with provinces and territories were launched in December 2015 and an agreement in principle was reached in June 2016 on the broad parameters of a Canada Pension Plan enhancement. The Government will be moving forward to legislate this agreement. | Enabling Appropriate Legal and Institutional Settings
Status: In progress
Status: Implemented. The long form census has been restored and 2016 Survey was mailed out in May 2016. |
Infrastructure | Supporting Improvements in Investment Climate
Status: In progress. The Government has fully launched all new measures under the $53 billion New Building Canada Plan. | Enabling Appropriate Legal and Institutional Settings
Status: On track. The Government has announced measures to provide provinces and territories greater flexibility to commit funding under the New Building Canada Plan by March 2018. |
SMEs | Facilitating Financial Intermediation Corporate tax relief for small businesses Status: Implemented. A reduction in the small business corporate income tax rate from 11 per cent to 10.5 per cent was legislated in 2015. Budget 2016 announced that further reductions in the small business income tax rate will be deferred. | Enabling Appropriate Legal and Institutional Settings
Status: In progress. The Government will define a new Innovation Agenda over the coming year and announced interim investments, including $2 billion over the next three years for post-secondary research and innovation infrastructure and $800 million over four years to support innovation networks and clusters.
Status: In progress. Of note, the necessary legislative and regulatory amendments were made to implement Canada Small Business Financing Program, which enhances the ability of Canadian small businesses to secure capital to grow their businesses and create jobs. |
Annex 2. New and Adjusted Policy Commitments since Antalya
This annex is for describing new measures introduced since Antalya, or Brisbane and Antalya commitments that have been adjusted or modified.
Please complete a table for each new or adjusted commitment put forward in 2016. Please keep to no longer than 1 page for each policy commitment.
Improving Infrastructure
Promoting Inclusive Growth
Advancing Labour Market Reform, Educational Attainment and Skills
Eliminating the higher EI eligibility requirements that restrict access for new entrants and re-entrants to the labour market;
Extending the Working While on Claim pilot project until August 2018.
Going forward, the Government will also work with provinces and territories to expand eligibility for Canada Student Grants and to introduce a flat-rate student contribution to determine eligibility for loans and grants, to replace the current system of assessing student income and financial assets. These measures are expected to be in place for the 2017-18 academic year.
In addition, the Government announced an Expert Panel on Youth Employment to assess the barriers faced by vulnerable youth in finding and keeping jobs. The panel is expected to report to the Minister of Youth and the Minister of Employment Workforce Development and Labour by December 2016.
This funding includes investments in the current on reserve primary and secondary education systems to address immediate funding needs and program cost growth, investments in language and cultural programming, and investments in literacy and numeracy programs and special needs education.
Encouraging Innovation
Enhancing Environmental Sustainability
In addition, the Government will provide over $130 million over five years, starting in 2016-17, to Sustainable Development Technology Canada and to Natural Resources Canada to support clean technology research, development and demonstration activities.
Trade Openness and Promoting Competition
The Government has also launched public consultations on eliminating tariffs on food manufacturing ingredients other than supply-managed products. The consultation process closed on June 21, 2016, and analysis is in progress.
Improving and strengthening the financial system
Regulations constraining the use of government-backed portfolio-insured mortgages became effective July 1, 2016;
Guarantee fees for CMHC-sponsored securitization programs were increased effective July 1, 2016;
Plans to update regulatory capital requirements for residential mortgages to ensure that capital requirements keep pace with market developments and risks by end-2017; and
Allocate $500,000 to Statistics Canada in 2016-17 to develop methods for gathering data on purchases of Canadian housing by foreign homebuyers.
Annex 3. Past commitment – St. Petersburg fiscal commitment
Please include the overall assessment of the 2010 Toronto commitments.
The Government of Canada met its commitment to at least halve its deficit by 2013. The Government net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to begin declining in 2017.
Please update the tables as follows:
Medium‑term projections, and change since last submission (required for all members):
Figures | 2014-15* | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross Debt | 51.9 | 53.3 | 54.9 | 54.5 | 53.7 | 52.8 | 51.9 |
ppt change | -1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
Federal Debt1 | 31.0 | 31.2 | 32.5 | 32.4 | 32.1 | 31.6 | 30.9 |
ppt change | -1.3 | 0.1 | 1.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
Budgetary Balance2 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
ppt change | 0.4 | -0.4 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Primary Balance | 1.4 | 1.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
ppt change | 0.2 | -0.4 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
CAPB | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
ppt change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
* Figures can be presented on a fiscal year basis, should they be unavailable for the calendar year.
1. Federal debt is defined as total liabilities less total (financial and non-financial) assets. 2. A positive (negative) balance indicates a fiscal surplus (deficit). Presented on a fiscal year basis.
The debt‑to‑GDP ratio and deficit projections are contingent on the following assumptions for growth:
Figures | 2014-15* | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP growth | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
ppt change | 0.3 | -1.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Nominal GDP growth | 4.3 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
ppt change | 0.5 | -3.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
* Figures can be presented on a fiscal year basis, should they be unavailable for the calendar year.
Annex 4. Pre-Brisbane commitments
The purpose of these tables is to monitor the implementation of members’ Pre-Brisbane commitments.
Pre-Brisbane Commitments
Please include a maximum of 5 important structural reform commitments from Action Plans prior to Brisbane.
Continuing to support research, innovation, and skills development.
Structural reform
Cannes Action Plan
Measurability: Details on the individual expenditure plans for each federal department and agency responsible for delivering the commitments are available in their respective Report on Plans and Priorities (http://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/rpp/index-eng.asp). Background on the post-secondary infrastructure initiative can be found at: http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/051.nsf/eng/home
Canada will introduce a renewed Global Commerce Strategy in 2013 and pursue major free trade agreements with the European Union, Japan and India, and Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries.
Structural reform - Trade
Los Cabos Action Plan
In terms of free trade agreements, the Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement, Canada’s first such agreement in Asia, entered into force on January 1, 2015. In August 2014, Canada and the EU announced the successful conclusion of negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), and an agreement on the TPP was announced in October 2015. Canada continues to pursue major trade agreements with India and other countries.
Measurability: Legislative
Economic Action Plan 2013 presents $70 billion in new and existing infrastructure funding through the Building Canada plan, and for First Nations and federal infrastructure over the next 10 years.
Structural reform – Infrastructure Investment
St. Petersburg Action Plan
- All components of the NBCP (base funding provided through the Gas Tax Fund and the Goods and Services Tax Rebate, as well the program funding provided through legacy programs, as well as the New Building Canada Fund) are currently operational; and
- In April 2016, the Government announced measures aimed at accelerating funding commitments under the New Building Canada Fund, with a view to committing all remaining funding by March 2018.
- Beginning construction on the New Bridge for the St. Lawrence project, following financial close on the P3 contract in June 2015; and
- Completing the first stage of the procurement process (the selection of three short-listed bidders through a Request for Qualifications) for the Gordie Howe International Bridge project, which will provide a new highway-to-highway connection between Windsor, Ontario and Detroit, Michigan.
Economic Action Plan 2013 reduces barriers to accreditation of apprentices, supports the use of apprentices, and introduces the Canada Job Grant to better match Canadians with available jobs. The grant provides funding for businesses planning to train Canadians.
Structural reform – Skill Development
St. Petersburg Action Plan
The Canada Job Grant has been successfully implemented in all provinces and territories (except Quebec) and is now in its third year of implementation. During the second year of implementation (2015-16), provinces and territories reviewed the Canada Job Grant in their respective jurisdictions. A Pan-Canadian summary has been prepared and the final report is with the Forum of Labour Market Ministers for their review. Federal-provincial/territorial officials continue to work together on shared commitments under the Canada Job Fund Agreements.
Measurability: The number of trades for which apprenticeship training and certification requirements were harmonized and the number of jurisdictions taking part in these agreements. The number of Canadians receiving training through the Canada Job Grant each year.
Annex 5. Key Economic Indicators
Please update table of key indicators as follows:
I. Macroeconomic Indicators | 2015*** | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP (% yoy) | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Nominal GDP (% yoy) | 0.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
Output Gap (% of GDP)* | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inflation (%, yoy) | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)** | -0.3 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Unemployment (%) | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
Savings (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Investment (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Public Fixed Capital Investment (% GDP) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Private Fixed Capital Investment (% GDP) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Total Fixed Capital Investment (% GDP) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
*A positive (negative) gap indicates an economy above (below) its potential.
**A positive (negative) balance indicates a fiscal surplus (deficit). Presented on a fiscal year basis
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